Do or Die Day

Three game threes on tap for today and I have no doubt all three will be action packed with 725 pitching changes and pinch hitters, so we will tread lightly and enjoy a great day of baseball. Reminder: Stats listed below are set up as AVG/wOBA/ISO unless otherwise noted.

As always, my personal plays are posted publicly in the Break the Odds Discord, the Mosh Pit Discord, and often shared on my X account.

✅ THE SLATE ✅

Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, 3p

• I haven’t had a totally comfortable read on this series, so I’m mostly content to just ignore it. The one bat that stands out for the Mix today is Kerry Carpenter at .346/.425/.346

San Diego Padres vs. Chicago Cubs, 5p

• Seiya Suzuki seems to be the one carrying the Cubs, so he would be the bat to target. Mix isn’t there (.255/.340/.277) but this time of year we have to look at everything.

• I have no recent stats to support anything, but my present eyeballs tell me that Xander Bogaerts has been hitting the ball HARD in this series, so he’s my Padres target.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, 8p

• Sox went to the bullpen EARLY yesterday, so today is all about hoping rookie Connelly Early can step up and have a career moment (see what I did there?). Pitcher outs line is 9.5, so I’ll be looking at the over.

• His postseason career history aside, Aaron Judge was strong numbers against the Pitch Mix (though I’m not relying a ton on that in a game where pitching will be determined by matchup and situation. That said, he’s .474/.566/.474 L30 against the Mix.

• Trevor Story’s overall numbers aren’t entirely there (.306/.312/.111), but he’s pretty much the heart and soul of the Sox order right now, so he’s gonna have to do something if they’re gonna win. Masataka Yoshida is the other bat in consideration. He’s been swinging the bat well in this series and wouldn’t be surprised to see him deliver a clutch hit.

That’s all for now … Let’s go get some GREEN!