The Great Troutdoors

OK … things are back to normal today and we have a solid list of plays for our Saturday slate.

Let’s dive into the plays for Saturday, July 19th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list all the time, but right now it is FREE for everybody thru 7/27. SPECIAL

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Mike Trout / Zach Neto (LAA) vs. Taijuan Walker [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
11-36	.315	.381	.352	93.1	52.63%

Trout clocks in with the play of the day with solid numbers as well at a .579 avg and 3 HR against Walker in his career. Neto numbers are good too.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u)

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

• Kyle Stowers (MIA) vs. Michael Wacha [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
13-38	.342	.397	.342	91	53.57%

Let’s see if Stowers can carry over his hot bat from before the All Star Game.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u)

✅ THE NEXT TIER ✅

• Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) vs. Joey Wentz [GRADE: A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
7-18	.389	.498	.389	95	58.62%

Wentz had a decent outing before the break, but he’s also still Joey Wentz at his core and Goldie has spent a career teeing off against mediocre lefties.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u-1u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Brandon Nimmo (NYM) vs. Nick Martinez [GRADE: B+/A-]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
16-39	.410	.419	.179	92.1	56.25%

ISO is down but everything else looks good

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Colt Keith (DET) vs. Kumar Rocker [GRADE: B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
16-49	.388	.406	.245	97.1	72.73%

Solid numbers across the board and Rocker has yet to look good this season, especially against lefties.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Matt Olson (ATL) vs. Will Warren [GRADE: B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
13-35	.371	.391	.257	96.5	68%

Warren has had issues against lefties and Olson’s numbers are also strong across the board.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.7u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Byron Buxton (MIN) vs. Antonio Senzatela [GRADE: B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
17-55	.309	.386	.291	95	60.98%

Probably crap odds since we’re at Coors, but still makes the list.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (0.7u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Manny Machado (SD) v. Mitchell Parker [GRADE: B/B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
6-22	.273	.404	.545	.97.3	72.22%

AVG a little low, but four of the six hits are HRs so it’s worth some exposure.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5-0.7u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Jose Ramirez (CLE) vs. Luis Severino [GRADE: B]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
12-46	.261	.327	.261	92.3	45.42%

Pitch Mix numbers aren’t great, but he has a .316 avg and 3 HR against Severino, who has also been hot garbage.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u-0.3u)

• Dominic Canzone (SE) vs. Lance McCullers [GRADE: B]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
9-25	.360	.447	.320	90.5	47.62%

Decent play, but also feel free to fade if you have too much action from the above list. I’ll have a sprinkle.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.5u), HR (0.2u)

That’s all for now … Let’s go get some GREEN!