Size Matters (That's What She Said)

Plunder The Under
4 days ago
2 min read

Small slate today with only 6 games so we look for quality over quantity.

Let’s jump into the plays for Thursday, May 15th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

Freddie Freeman / Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs. Oswaldo Bido [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
8-20	.400	.482	.350	92.6	62.5%

Freddie and the GOAT both have absurd numbers against the Pitch Mix and both are hitting well. Not a whole lot else to say here other than “here’s hoping we fan find a halfway decent line.” Above numbers a L14.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u for boosts and such), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

Drake Baldwin (ATL) vs. Trevor Williams [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	ISO	ExitVelo	HardHit%
10-16	.625	.673	.500	97.4	75%

This comes with a big “if he actually starts” caveat, but his numbers are ridiculous vs. the mix, so here’s hoping the Braves subscribe to this email and plug him in. Williams has lots of issues with lefties as well.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.2-0.3u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Tuesday, May 13 …

❌ Kike Hernandez: 1-4

❌ Andy Pages: 0-4

✅ Jose Ramirez: 2-4, HR, RBI, 2 runs

✅ Steven Kwan: 2-4, double

✅ Jackson Chourio: 2-4, double

❌ Jackson Merrill: 0-4

✅ Pete Crow-Armstrong: 2-3, HR, 2 RBI, run

✅ Brett Baty: 2-3, HR, RBI, run … a +1000 HR banger!!!

✅ Jordan Beck: 1-4, run