Screw the Kentucky Derby, Let's Have a Home Run Derby!

I love the Kentucky Derby. Not because I care about horse racing, or that I will likely even watch the race. I love it more because 1) mint juleps are delicious, and 2) it’s when people who have NO clue about horse racing sit and act like they’re experts as they try to pick the winner.

“This horse is good on a sloppy track!” Oh for crying out loud you Googled like two things and now you’re an expert. It’s like when the guy in your fantasy football league lets the computer autodraft for him and then brags about making the playoffs. But hey … let’s dive in for a day of goofy hats and rich people watching their million dollar toys run around in an oval.

Let’s jump into the plays for Saturday, May 3rd. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Anthony Volpe and his buddies (NYY) vs. Zack Littell [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
8-25	.320	.402	.960	.240	50%

Above numbers are for Volpe’s last 14 days where he’s really been turning it on. Zack Littell stinks, especially against lefties, so Trent Grisham is in play as well. And while Aaron Judge isn’t a lefty, he also matches up just as well (good luck getting any decent odds on him though). We might be able to get some decent H+R+R for Grisham or Volpe, but Judge is likely a HR play and a parlay piece.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

• Pete Alonso (NYM) vs. Erick Fedde [GRADE: B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
15-39	.385	.484	1.202	.282	58.82%

Was gonna put Tatis here but he got hit by a pitch last night so I imagine he gets a game off. If he’s playing, he’s back in. Otherwise, these 30 day numbers for Alonso also come with a solid 96.4 MPH exit velo. Alonso is 6-16 (.375) off Fedde as well.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75u-1u), HR (0.2-0.3u), hit parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Thursday, May 1 …

❌ Jarren Duran: 1-4 … I told you Berrios would get us!!

❌ Bryson Stott: 0-4

❌ Rhys Hoskins: 0-2

❌ Daniel Schneemann: 1-2

✅ Kyle Manzardo: 1-3, RBI

✅ Jonathan Aranda: 2-4, RBI

✅ Chandler Simpson: 2-4, run

❌ Trevor Larnach: 0-4

Mostly a shit sandwich kinda day. Oh well … onward and upward!