Marcell Ozuna Hates Me

In the world of sports betting, sometimes it just feels like certain guys hate your stupid face. Whenever you play them, they suck. Whenever you fade them, they go off. My all time devil player from any sport is NBA’s Big Ol’ Jerkface Buddy Hield (that’s his full legal name BTW).

In baseball I’m starting to think it’s Marcell Ozuna. Guy is a beast every night, till your boy Plunder dials him up for a pick or two. Then he decides to lay a nice big fat goose egg. That said, if I took every bet personally I never would’ve lasted this long in this game. (I try to only take 72% of them personally)

You're a bad man!

Let’s jump into the plays for Wednesday, April 30th. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Paul Goldschmidt / Aaron Judge (NYY) vs. Cade Povich [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
12-18	.667	.678	1.667	.222	52.25%

I mean it’s real easy to pick a couple guys from a team that just scored like 47 runs against the Orioles and now get to face another terrible pitcher. The above ridiculous numbers are for Goldie this year, but Judge is pretty close behind. The real issue here is that the odds are going to be garbage, which was the reason I didn’t list Judge yesterday (whoops).

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

• Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) vs. Carmen Mlodzinski [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
16-40	.400	.480	1.138	.333	61.29%

PCA is hot this week in addition to the 30 days mubers above against the 4 seam/change/slider/sweeper mix of the “mediocre at best” Carmen Mlodzinski. Worth noting that Kyle Tucker’s season numbers were good enough to make the list but he is ICE COLD this week so I can’t full endorse him. (Of course now I’m gonna get FOMO)

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (1u), HR (0.3u-0.5u), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Monday, April 28 …

✅ Aaron Judge: 2-5, RBI

❌ Francisco Lindor: 0-3, run … AND THE METS SCORED 19 DAMMIT!!!

✅ Freddie Freeman: 1-3, RBI, run

❌ Steven Kwan: 1-3

✅ Elly De La Cruz: 1-4, double

✅ Trent Grisham: 2-5

✅ Noelvi Marte: 1-2, triple, RBI

✅ Pitching Underlay

Lindor was a killer because I had him in a few plays, but overall a nice day!