CHICKEN JOCKEY!!

In “real life” your boy Plunder coaches middle school baseball, so this time of year I basically hang out with a bunch of 13-14 year old boys 7 days a week. They’re dirty, they smell and they can never remember the damn hit and run sign. They also yell “CHICKEN JOCKEY!” about 200 times every game.

Why? No clue.

Where am I going with this? Also no clue.

Let’s smash some plays shall we????

Let’s jump into the plays for Thursday, May 1st. Reminder SIGN UP FOR PREMIUM (if ya ain’t already) to get the full list.

✅ TOP PICKS ✅

• Jarren Duran (BOS) vs. Jose Berrios [GRADE: A]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
15-49	.306	.397	.977	.245	56.1%

I will preface this with one thing … Jose Berrios is one of those mofos I feel like I can never get right. I target batters against him and he goes out there looking like Big Six Christy Mathewson. I target him as a pitcher and he looks like a big fat pile of something. That said, the numbers here are good and Duran is also 9-18 (.500) with the HRs off Berrios in his career.

TARGET MARKETS: TB (1u), HR (0.3-0.5u with promos and boosts), hit parlays, H+R+R parlays

Quick note on the Target Markets section: These are the markets I’m going to be line/promo shopping for when the markets open up. Sometimes I will avoid them if they’re too juicy or the odds are just garbage (-130 and worse). Unit recommendation is a general guideline, but could change based on value. Also … feel free to visit GAMBLING SCHOOL 101 for a breakdown of all markets, bankroll, risk management and more

• JT Realmuto / Bryson Stott (PHI) vs. Brad Lord [GRADE: B+]

H/AB	AVG	wOBA	OPS	ISO	HardHit%
18-43	.419	.464	1.153	.140	48.57%

Today’s picks are kinda weird because there a bunch that I like, but very few that I LOVE. They’re also fairly solid, but they all have a little something that pulls them away from being elite. Above numbers are 30 day for Realmuto against the 4 seam/sinker/slider mix Lord throws to righties. Everything looks good except the ISO, so I’m hoping for H+R+R. For Stott … I isolated just 4-seam fastballs because Lord throws them 72% of the time to lefties. Stott is batting .400 against the pitch with a .502 wOBA and .320 ISO. All pretty solid. If I had to pick one play, it would be Stott, but I think both are in the mix.

TARGET MARKETS: H+R+R/TB (0.75-1u) … ideally want H+R+R but depends on odds, HR (0.3u), hit parlays (Stott)

💰 THE RECAP 💰

These are all of our picks from Tuesday, April 29 …

✅ Tommy Edman: 1-2, double, 3 RBI, run

✅ Freddie Freeman: 2-2, 2 runs

❌ Marcell Ozuna: 0-5 … hates me

❌ Christian Yelich: 0-3

❌ Steven Kwan: 0-4

❌ Cal Raleigh: 1-2, 2 walks

✅ Pitching Underlay: Best parlay EVER!

Dodgers and the Underlay saved us.